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Mobile Market Steady, Apple Poised to Explode with iPhone 5

Posted: August 31, 2011 at 10:16 am   /   by   /   comments (3)

ComScore released their latest U.S. Smartphone Market Share data today. In a way, it is not terribly surprising when comparing my projected values with July’s actual results. Still, consistently failing is not good for anyone. RIM might want to take note and come up with something big before they end up in HP’s situation. With my original prediction putting webOS gone by 2012, HP finally wised up by ceasing all support for webOS devices a couple weeks ago.

USA comScore Smartphone Market Share August 2011

comScore: Sept 2009 to July 2011 U.S. Market Share

From my calculations, everyone is trending pretty steady. Google nudged a bit higher in gains. Apple has been consistent the past four months. RIM slowed their losses, but they’re still losses. Both Windows Phone 7 and webOS have lost more customers than predicted. Bad news for Microsoft (hoping their Mango OS update changes that around) but kind of moot for webOS since it’s now a dead operating system.

Projected July 2011 Market Share Values

My projections are calculated by averaging the change in percentage of the three months prior and applying that change to the previous month's market share percentage. (dotted line in main chart)

As far as handset makers, Samsung and Apple are still king with the only increases in subscribers over the past three months. Samsung shouldn’t get too comfortable with their 1.0% gain when Apple posted a 1.2% gain… using a different mobile platform… with only two handsets… both of which having been released over 14 months ago.

Looking to the future, Apple is setting up for a major hit on their hands with iOS 5 and the iPhone 5. The latest update will bring updated hardware combined with updated software that rivals the feature set found in more recent Android revisions. Apple is set to announce the next iPhone sometime near the end of September with an early October release for the device(s). The world has not seen a brand new iPhone since June 2010 when the original iPhone 4 came out. Since then, Apple has just been re-releasing variations of the iPhone 4 leading up to this point (CDMA/VZW version, then the magical “white” casing edition). With the recent departure of their beloved CEO Steve Jobs, Apple has a lot riding on this next release.

The Android OEM’s have been frantically finishing up their latest designs to get them out in time to compete with iPhone 5. Most Android superphones nowadays easily out-spec the iPhone 4, and the trend will continue with competing against Apple’s next handset. Samsung is hoping their new flagship Galaxy S II line will keep subscribers away from iOS. If that doesn’t work, their backup plan is the next Nexus device: a completely stock Android version 4.0 monster of a phone headed to Verizon. LG has their massive LTE (VZW Revolution) out now and the 3D-display Thrill 4G (AT&T) handset launching next week. HTC has an uber-spec handset waiting for AT&T LTE to blossom under the codenames “Holiday/Raider”. That handset will feature the latest version of their highly popular Sense UI.

This time of year, you don’t buy/upgrade until every player has hit the field. May the best phone win!

Stay tuned to ReviewSTL.com for when new information regarding the Samsung Galaxy S II line comes available. I will be posting side-by-side device comparisons across all four major carriers!

Source: comScore, HP Kills webOS

Comments (3)

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  • August 31, 2011 at 11:40 am Sam

    There is no iPhone 5. Apple have never confirmed another iPhone and as an employee of a tier 1 carrier, we have had NO information about an iPhone for 2011. We have an SLA with Apple for at least 2 months notice for a new item as it takes this long to add this to our network. The future’s not that bright…

  • September 1, 2011 at 7:01 am audiotek

    @Sam. I think you’re talking nonsense there. But I’ll give you a few reasons as to why Apple will release a new iPhone.

    You’re right Apple has not confirmed that there will be an iPhone 5 per se. However, according to Peter Oppenheimer, Apple CFO (Q3 Earnings)when asked why Apple’s guidance for next quarter is lower than usual, Peter Oppenheimer said it’s because Apple has a lot planned for the fall, including an unspecified “future product transition.” My guess would be a new iPhone. The iPhone is where Apple makes the most money from. It is their most successful product followed closely by the iPad and then the Mac.

    Apple has to — I repeat has to — release the next version of the iPhone, with improved specs overall. They cannot afford to let the fall season (busiest season of the year) go by, without releasing a new iPhone. That’s potentially millions and millions of sales.

    They will will also lose too much ground to Android’s fierce competition and increasing adoption happening everywhere. Samsung has just released its Galaxy SII line across North America and believe me that phone is the best Android phone around no question. It will sell like hot cakes, and eat into Apple’s territory guaranteed.

    I can pretty much assure you that there will be a new and improved iPhone late September early October perhaps. Don’t know what sort of improvements or whether they will be ground braking or whatever but knowing Apple they always manage to impress with hardware and software.

  • September 4, 2011 at 12:29 pm Jimbo

    You should probably email Best Buy and Sprint to inform them of this news: http://www.bgr.com/2011/09/04/best-buy-anticipating-iphone-5-for-sprint-preorders-starting-next-month/