Cardinals Sign Craig to 5-year Deal

Today, it was announced the team was buying out his arbitration years by signing him to a five-year contract worth $31 million with a $13 million option for 2018. The deal will buy out his arbitration as well as his first year of free agency, 2017.

The breakdown of the contract per year:

2013 – $1.75 million

2014 – $2.75 million

2015 – $5.5 million

2016 – $9 million

2017 – $11 million

2018 – $13 million *

* – team option

From a strictly statistical standpoint, this was a no-brainer. Craig is, quite simply, a professional hitter. He has a career slashline of .300/.348/.515, which becomes .309/.357/.532 if you take into account just the last two years. During the 2011 post-season, you’ll also remember that Craig had the go-ahead RBI in Game 1 of the World Series and also had a pinch-hit RBI in Game 2 that put the Cardinals ahead. In Game 6, Craig’s home run to left field was part of the catalyst to the team’s rally, and his opposite field bomb in Game 7 ultimately proved to be the winning run. Among players last year with 100+ plate appearances with runners in scoring position, Craig ranked first in all of MLB with a .400 average

So, obviously, the guy’s a masher. Craig is also just 28, so the contract should take him through the prime of his career. The question will be whether his knee becomes an issue. Remember in 2011, a fluke run-in with the wall in Houston caused Craig to miss two months; surgery to repair the same knee is what forced Craig to miss April last year. Accidents happen, obviously, and from 2008-10, Craig played in 129, 126, and 127 games, respectively.

Should Craig play the bulk of this contract at first, it will effectively give the Cardinals yet another trading prospect in Matt Adams, whom I’ve been following since the beginning of his career. A career first baseman in the minors, Adams has slugged .565 in the farm system, including last year when he crushed 18 home runs in just 67 games at Memphis. Adams had a brief cup of coffee with the Cardinals last year before he was sent down to Memphis, where he eventually had to have surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow.

Adams is unlikely to play anywhere but first base or DH, and if Craig proves to be the long-term solution at first, Adams would likely become the target of trade rumors, as there will likely be several teams interested in a first baseman who can slug .550 and hit for a high average.