Oscar Predictions 2010 – Who Will Win, From Best Picture to Best Actress

Hey there, the Academy Awards are this Sunday so I thought I would post my thoughts on the matter, who I think will and should win of the nominees, and who I think should have been nominated but wasn’t So with out further ado…

Oh, also if you want to see if you can pick the Oscars better than me, join my group and you can make your picks and change them up until the night before the show! Head to Awards Picks now to sign up for the Having Said That… pool.

Best Picture

“Avatar”
“The Blind Side”
“District 9”
“An Education”
“The Hurt Locker” – WILL WIN
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Precious”
“A Serious Man”
“Up” – SHOULD WIN
“Up in the Air”

I thought the academy did a pretty good job picking the nominees this year and aside from The Blind Side I don’t have to much of an issue with any of the nominees. It would have been great to see (500) Days of Summer squeak in here, or even Fantastic Mr. Fox. The Cove also would have even been a worthy choice to put up for Best Picture but I guess it will have to settle for a hopeful win in documentary feature.

Best Director
James Cameron, “Avatar”
Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker” – WILL WIN
“Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”
“Lee Daniels, “Precious”
Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air”

The directors picked this year are not the top five I would take from the films nominated for best picture and I would even throw in a couple other names to the mix. Neil Blomkamp for District 9, Pete Docter for Up, and Joel and Ethan Coen would all have been just as good a pick as anyone nominated and I would add Tom Ford for a Single Man as well as Duncan Jones for Moon from films not nominated. In fact I think I would give the should win to either Tom Ford or James Cameron if I were handing out the prizes.

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart” – WILL WIN
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth, “A Single Man” – SHOULD WIN
Morgan Freeman, “Invictus”
Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”

Sam Rockwell for Moon, Sharlto Copley for District 9, and Tom Hardy for Bronson would all have been inspired picks here if they had been nominated by the Academy. With that said, I think Firth delivered the performance of the year as he mesmerized me from start to finish of A Single Man. Viggo Mortensen in The Road would have also be a very worthwhile choice had the academy gone that route. As much as I love Bridges, he has been better in other films and though I am glad he is probably going to win his first Oscar, I hate that he is getting the award basically because he hasn’t one one for a good, but lesser role, for him. If Renner sneaked in there with a win I would support that whole heartedly by the way.

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side” – WILL WIN
Helen Mirren, “The Last Station”
Carey Mulligan, “An Education”
Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia” – SHOULD WIN

This list is a pretty solid group of actresses and while it seems like Bullock is running a bit away with this thing, I can’t figure out why people are forgetting about Streep’s incredible work. Bullock seems to be winning because people like her and thinks she deserves some credit for being around a while. While this is definitely one of her stronger turns in her career she doesn’t come close to matching Streep, Mulligan, and Sidibe among her nominees. I still haven’t seen Last Station, will this week though, so I can’t properly comment on Mirren here, but I think Zoe Saldana for Avatar was robbed of a nomination and would have loved to see Zooey Deschanel in (500) Days of Summer, Maya Rudolph in Away We Go, or Emily Blunt in The Young Victoria score a nomination for their work as well.

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, “Invictus”
Woody Harrelson, “The Messenger”
Christopher Plummer, “The Last Station”
Stanley Tucci, “The Lovely Bones”
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds” – WILL AND SHOULD WIN

I prefered Tucci in Julie & Julia, Damon in The Informant!, and Woody Harrelson could have just as justly been nominated for Zombieland. Who missed the cut that could have made it? In a perfect world, Michael Gambon getting nominated here for his work as Dumbledore in the Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince (as well as his other three films in the series) would be incredible. As would Michael Pena getting nominated for Observe and Report for one of the funniest roles of the year. Alfred Molina and Peter Sarsagaard in An Education would have been great picks as well. Jackie Earl Haley’s work in Watchmen was also worth noticing as well as the deranged Rorschach. Anthony Mackie might have been the biggest snub in this category for his work in The Hurt Locker. It doesn’t matter though because Waltz was going to win no matter what for his fantastic work as Hans Landa in Inglourious Basterds and is very deserving if/when he wins the prize; a nod to his co-star Michael Fassbender would have been an inspired choice though.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, “Nine”
Vera Farmiga, “Up in the Air”
Maggie Gyllenhaal, “Crazy Heart”
Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”
Mo’Nique, “Precious” – WILL AND SHOULD WIN

This award is all but wrapped up but Diane Kruger or Mélanie Laurent did some great work in Inglourious Basterds and I would have taken Marion Cotillard over Cruz in Nine. Beyond these ladies I don’t quite know who else I would throw into the mix.

Best Adapted Screenplay
“District 9”
“An Education”
“In the Loop”
“Precious”
“Up in the Air” – SHOULD and WILL WIN

Where is Fantastic Mr. Fox? The Road? Where the Wild Things Are? A Single Man? Julie and Julia? and dare I say Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince (I know I have some serious issues with what they cut, but it is one of the finer written of the fantastic series)? Up in the Air deserves the win here though for creating such vivid characters and capturing the feel of a country in its script though I would have loved to see a couple of those films I listed make the short list.

Best Original Screenplay
“The Hurt Locker” – WILL WIN
“Inglourious Basterds”
“The Messenger”
“A Serious Man”
“Up” – SHOULD WIN

(500) Days of Summer should have been nominated here but beyond that I really like this list. The Hurt Locker is likely the winner but I would go with Up as it pulls at your heart, makes you laugh, and is full of wonderful characters and adventure. Moon would have been a nice choice here as well to be nominated, same for Away We Go, but oh well.

Best Animated Feature Film
“Coraline”
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“The Princess and the Frog”
“The Secret of Kells”
“Up” – SHOULD AND WILL WIN

I would have liked to have seen Mary and Max make the cut but I can’t speak for The Secret of Kells which hasn’t had a proper release for most of the general public. Though it doesn’t really matter as UP is the runaway winner compared to everyone here besides Fantastic Mr. Fox who is a close-ish second.

Best Foreign Language Film
“Ajami” (Israel)
“The Milk of Sorrow” (Peru)
“A Prophet” (France) – WILL WIN
“The Secret in Their Eyes” (Argentina)
“The White Ribbon” (Germany)

I can’t comment on these, though Sin Nombre deserved some love regardless, my prediction above is based on what I am hearing on the inter-webs.

Best Art Direction
“Avatar” WILL AND SHOULD WIN
“The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus”
“Nine”
“Sherlock Holmes”
“The Young Victoria”

I imagine this is going to begin a flood of technical awards for Avatar. Would have loved to see Mr. Fox or Up get in this short list though.

Best Cinematography
“Avatar” – WILL WIN
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince”
“The Hurt Locker”
“The White Ribbon”

A Single Man SHOULD WIN as it is beautiful and Anti-Christ should have been on the short list as well. A Serious Man was also wonderfully shot by Mr. Deakins and one wonders how that didn’t make it in the final five. And again Mr. Fox should have been shown some love here.

Best Costume Design
“Bright Star”
“Coco Before Chanel”
“The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus”
“Nine”
“The Young Victoria” – WILL AND SHOULD WIN

These are some great choices and I can’t think of anything that was really snubbed here but I would give some love to the corduroy suits of Mr. Fox. (only half joking)

Best Film Editing
“Avatar”
“District 9”
“The Hurt Locker” WILL and SHOULD WIN
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Precious”

Not sure about Precious being in here, I would have given a nod to Star Trek, (500) Days of Summer, A Serious Man and A Single Man in its place. But I think The Hurt Locker is going to win and that is a pretty good choice if you ask me.

Best Makeup
“Il Divo”
“Star Trek”
“The Young Victoria” WILL WIN

No District 9? Did you see his arm? District 9 SHOULD WIN.

Best Music (Original Score)
“Avatar”
“Fantastic Mr. Fox”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Sherlock Holmes”
“Up” WILL AND SHOULD WIN

Go Michael Giacchino! Where is nom for Star Trek though? (More Giacchino) and Clint Mansell for Moon would have been a great choice if only more people saw that picture. Avatar sounds too much like James Horner’s other scores if you ask me.

Best Music (Original Song)
“Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog”
“Down in New Orleans” from “The Princess and the Frog”
“Loin de Paname” from “Paris 36″
“Take it All” from “Nine”
“The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart” WILL AND SHOULD WIN

I liked “Cinema Italiano” over Take it All, and both Voodo songs in Princess and the Frog over those 2. Would also have been great if Ed Helms got in for “Stu’s Song” in The Hangover, but The Weary Kind will be a great choice if things pan out like they seem like they will.

Best Sound Editing
“Avatar” WILL WIN
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Star Trek”
“Up” SHOULD WIN

District 9 where are you?

Best Sound Mixing
“Avatar” WILL WIN
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Star Trek”
“Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” SHOULD WIN

Again, District 9 is MIA?

Best Visual Effects
“Avatar” WILL AND SHOULD WIN
“District 9”
“Star Trek”

Transformers is a ridiculous achievement of visual effects no matter what you feel about the picture should be in over Star Trek, or they should expanded the category to five.

Best Documentary Feature
“Burma VJ: Reporting from a Closed Country”
“The Cove” WILL AND SHOULD WIN
“Food, Inc.”
“The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers”
“Which Way Home”

Haven’t seen all of these but I can’t imagine anything being better than The Cove.

All guesses from here on out on the winner.

Best Documentary Short
“China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province”
“The Last Campaign of Booth Gardener”
“The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant”
“Music by Prudence”
“Rabbit a la Berlin” WILL WIN

Best Short Film (Animated)
“French Roast”
“Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty”
“The Lady and the Reaper”
“Logorama”
“A Matter of Loaf and Death” WILL WIN

Best Short Film (Live Action)
“The Door”
“Instead of Abracadabra”
“Kavi”
“Miracle Fish”
“The New Tenants” WILL WIN

That does it, and again sign up and play in an Oscars Picks game with me at Awards Picks. Hit the link or search for Having Said That…